The art of war:- to win a war by not firing a single bullet!
In the autumn of 1962- 20th October, 1962 the Chinese PLA over ran Indian army posts in the then North Eastern Frontier Agency (NEFA) sector. The Indo-Sino conflict as it’s known to all and sundry lasted roughly a month and half- with vast swathes of Indian Territory being taken over by the Chinese. Debated, studied, analysed, scrutinised and read the world over at military institutes, strategic affairs think-tanks and discussed by intelligentsia- conflict of 1962- was the single most ‘water shed’ moment for the Indian military machine- post 1947, when newly independent India, came into being.
The conflict- as aggressive manoeuvre by the Chinese was half expected- by the Indian political leadership in New Delhi- in view of the ‘pseudo bonhomie’ created by the ‘powers that be’ in Beijing and New Delhi! Divided by ideology, but joined at the hip over socialist ideals- of Nehru and the political leadership of New Delhi, reports of Chinese PLA build-up along India’s borders with China- in the NEFA and J&K sectors were dismissed, as mere paranoia. As such the political leadership’s view of things at hand from top- cost us dearly and how- history shows the way!
The age old adage – “enemies- enemy is my best friend” holds true for life as we know it. At time of independence from the British Empire- the land mass- known as imperial India- was divided into India and Pakistan. With almost 564+ princely states in between the two independent states- the choice was- to join either of the two nations. Barring, princely state of Jammu and Kashmir and Hyderabad (which eventually saw a police action to be acceded) chose to be remain independent of either country and the other states did what they felt best and re wrote their history in keeping with time. Jammu and Kashmir, as an independent state wasn’t acceptable to Mohammad Ali Jinnah as it was to the Indians. As is widely known, the state was invaded by Pakistan – sending in tribals as invaders to begin with- followed by elements of newly raised Pakistan army, who till a few months back were very much part of the larger British Indian Army!
The futile effort of Jinnah- to annexe Jammu and Kashmir entirely, as it was to be so in due course became the single most ‘bone of contention’ between Indian and Pakistan and it has been the “only objective” of successive Pakistan government over the years to get “Kashmir” – by hook or crook. Though Pakistan was able to rest a sizebale portion of the state- the areas known as Gilgit-Baltistant (Northern Areas) and the Pakistan occupied valley of Kashmir Z(known to Pakistanis as Azad Kashmir) With the dismemberment of its eastern wing- (present day Bangladesh), Pakistan added –‘badla of 71’ as another of its objective of spite and hatred against India, the Indian people and their state.
Keeping up with time and changing matrix of global geo-politics, in 1964- Pakistan handed over the region of Gilgit-Baltistan in Northern areas- to the Chinese and arranged a direct link up between the two nations via the “old silk-route” along the Karakoram highway. If one is to go by WM Dobell’s “Ramification of the China-Pakistan border treaty of 1964” – the geo-strategic goals of the two state holds true and in tune to this day, as it did, then.
In due course of time, the Sino-Pak friendship has grown from strength to strength – bringing in traditional India friendly states like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal into the fold and tightening the noose around India by a creating a “string of pearls!”
With heavy duty investments in development of core strategic and national interests inside Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar- by China and even Pakistan- India tends to lose ground and be in a ‘tight spot’ of unimaginable magnitude.
The writing is clear from Kashmir to Kanyakumari- Sino-Pak friendship is going to spell doom for India and how? Let us examine the present day strategic and tactical situation on ground and elsewhere, viz China- Pakistan- Sri Lanka- Bangladesh- Myanmar- Nepal and India.
In the regional scheme of things around SAARC region- without China, India is a ‘regional super power’! But, for how long will this delusion of false power remain?
As of today, Chinese presence in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal is twice over what India has to offer to these ‘regional minnows’. For long, India was the “fairy-god mother” to Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. Helping them out in their times of need as well as in defence of their land. Be it the “Bangladesh liberation war”, the “war against LTTE”, in Sri Lanka (IPKF-87) or for that matter sending in Indian Air Force to get King Mahendra out of Nepal in 1951 after the Rana Prime Ministers staged a coup against the king from Nepal! India has been benevolent in “being there” for one and all. But things are changing and fast! With internal strife in our own hinterland- and political strife between regional sat-raps India is losing its sheen – faster than we can blink an eye! In above scheme of things, it’s China which is closing in and at the pace- India is losing the grip!
With India banking out and China moving in- another silent yet potent winner is, Pakistan. With immense help from China – in Gilgit- Baltistan region to develop power generation and roadways, long term infrastructure projects by Chinese engineers are on in full swing and in aid to the infrastructure and development projects- the Chinese PLA is stationed –not just in defence of the Chinese workers, but to act as a buffer – in event of an Indian attack!
Things are not getting any better for Indians. Recent report of – Chinese and Pakistan army engaged in “war game exercise” near India’s border plains- makes matters worse and brings it to prominence. The Pakistan army today is over stretched and in a mess on the outside- Losing prestige in the global perspective of things- due to killing of Osama bin Laden inside Pakistan, the need for the soldiers to fight their own (in FATA and NWFP) on orders from America. These things make the soldier question his loyalty and tend to frustrate the officer cadre at times. Let us examine the given situation of the rebels/insurgents and militants the Pakistan army has been engaged in fighting with, for the last 2 to 3 years on its western and north western end.
Prior to 2009- the Pakistan army fielded only one armoured and infantry brigade group- at Khuzdar and Turbat, respectively in Balochistan and 2 divisions (33 inf and 41 inf HQ at Quetta) under the 12 Corps at Quetta! It was around 2009, with pressure from United States to engage militants inside Pakistan, who crossed over from Afghanistan, did Pakistan army move a ‘strike’ division level formation from its eastern border with India to fight Al Qaeda and home-grown terror outfits such as TTP in its ‘wild west’. Today Pak army fields 4 “strike division” in areas surrounding NWFP and FATA:-
According to OrBat of Pakistan Army- it consist of 11 Corps formations, including which are 2 armoured divisions – 2 mechanised divisions – 1 artillery divisions -19 infantry divisions- numerous Air Defence, independent artillery-armoured and infantry brigade group components amongst a fully fledged strategic command for nuclear arsenal delivery systems! In view of the information available- prior to 2008-09, Pakistan army fielded the entire strike components of the two strike corps on its eastern border with India- concentration of troops of the Pak army- is as peculiar and complicated as its psyche- one may have one corps HQ in one city along with div HQ of another corps in the same! It is as peculiar as it gets and not many armies of the world field their ‘troop concentration’ in such overcrowded and mismatched pattern- unless the paranoia of Generals and strategic policy is hounded by one and one country only!
Post 2009 scenario of Pakistan- as of today- Pakistan army looks over stretched across the line and over burdened with handling internal security crisis with 4 strike divisions missing from its assigned area of jurisdiction/Head Quarters -
37th Div- (of 1 [Strike] Corps HQ at Gujranwala, presently in Mingora) –
40th Div- (of 2 [Strike] Corps HQ at Okara, presently in Dera Ismail Khan) – lower NWFP
and two divisions –
19th Div-HQ Jhelum and
23rd Div- HQ Mangla of the 10 Corps, Pindi is located at Shangla- in Lower Swat!
It gets worse- with reports of one mechanised bde on the move towards the west (unconfirmed) and a surging crisis in Balochistan- the Pakistan army is likely to have its hands full, for time to come.
40th Div- (of 2 [Strike] Corps HQ at Okara, presently in Dera Ismail Khan) – lower NWFP
and two divisions –
19th Div-HQ Jhelum and
23rd Div- HQ Mangla of the 10 Corps, Pindi is located at Shangla- in Lower Swat!
It gets worse- with reports of one mechanised bde on the move towards the west (unconfirmed) and a surging crisis in Balochistan- the Pakistan army is likely to have its hands full, for time to come.
In this situation- it still doesn’t give India time to breathe- at a time when Aman ki Asha propaganda of ISI/Pakistan civil-society and Pakistan Army seems to turn the tide of India’s foreign policy and ‘civil society’ thinking tilt towards ‘overzealous, over the top Pro-Pakistan’ attitude- it’s not paranoia but caution towards ‘perpetual aggressor’ which per force makes one sit and think- “are we doing the right thing”?- and rightly so, within hours of the new Foreign Minister of Pakistan concluding her (what’s her name?) visit to New Delhi- Indian society seems to only care for and go gaga over the lady in question’s- so called “film star looks” and expensive hand bags and what not! But why (one is forced to ask) did the Pak Minister come? Was it to show off her bags or talk serious shop? What happened? Did our leaders even talk? Or were they so enamoured of her looks- that her ‘magic and charm’ worked to benefit Pakistan army, (real rulers)- in order to divert the attention of naive and gullible Indians from the real things at hand!
Also, one should not forget, to what happened just days after the ministerial visit-
According to highly placed sources, news of which have been played down by the ‘Indian media’, so as to not disturb the Paki agenda of peace process to dismember India-
“A team of Pakistan Army’s- Border Action Team- a specialised covert unit- raided an Indian post –inside Indian territory and in an ensuing carnage- killed and beheaded 4/5 Indian jawans of a forward post- while jawans were in middle of ‘change-of-guard’!” This brutal covert action cannot be justified under any circumstances- because; information has reached the public. It could or in secret, would have been justified- had information of such an action not been heard of! But, it’s for all to see and the duplicity of the ‘enemy’ is on the wall- literally!
Post- covert action of the Paki army and the insensitivity of the Indian media thereof- news of Chinese and Pakistan army engaged in field exercise – as close to 25 kilometres from border with India goes to prove that Pakistan and Pakistan army- won’t give up and now, Chinese PLA is what we have to deal with – in the event of Pakistan army’s over stretched resources!
Lastly, even if Indian army brass seems seriously gung ho about tackling Pakistani sat raps working against Indian interests- well, let’s hope we watch our six o’ clock- because Pakistan is prepared, has the will and the backing of its Best Friend, Beijing!
As for us- we might be prepared but we lack ‘will’ and our leaders are meek and ‘intelligentsia have been bought over, by ISI! – A la Ghulam Nabi Fai and likes of Dileep Padgaonkar- Radha Kumar so called interlocutor between the Government of India and separatists from J&K among others!
(picture courtesy- www.topnews.in via google!)
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